Paper trader

themetrader · validation harness

Three segregated portfolios run the agent's weekly opener. Every decision is logged — opens, exits, and the ones we passed on — and alpha is measured against SPY, not absolute return. The track record here is the source of truth for whether the architecture actually finds themes early.

main

Top-3 themes by Early-Move Score, no phase filter. The flagship.

cash deployed

$9,899.68/ $10,000 (99%)

positions

3 open · 6 closed

weighted alpha · SPY

+2.82%

realized P&L

$-2,961.21

win rate (closed)

0.0%(0W / 6L)

decisions logged

104

marker snapshots captured

30d:0/260d:0/090d:0/0180d:0/0

exit reasons

thesis_decay · 1initial_stop · 5

whisper

Top-3 themes constrained to cycle_phase = whisper. Tests sub-claim C3 (whisper > crowded).

cash deployed

$10,998.12/ $10,000 (110%)

positions

3 open · 6 closed

weighted alpha · SPY

-0.01%

realized P&L

$-1,586.44

win rate (closed)

16.7%(1W / 5L)

decisions logged

marker snapshots captured

30d:0/360d:1/190d:0/0180d:0/0

exit reasons

thesis_decay · 1initial_stop · 3chandelier · 2

crowded

Top-3 themes in trending/crowded phase. Control basket for the C3 test.

cash deployed

$0.00/ $10,000 (0%)

positions

0 open · 1 closed

weighted alpha · SPY

—

realized P&L

$-983.70

win rate (closed)

0.0%(0W / 1L)

decisions logged

marker snapshots captured

30d:0/060d:0/090d:0/0180d:0/0

exit reasons

initial_stop · 1

Open positions

portfolio	symbol	theme	qty	entry	mark	pnl	α · SPY	stop	chand high	entered	ask
main	DNN	uranium	1148	$2.820	$3.220	+14.18%	+9.98%	$2.459	$3.220	2026-07-20	ask →
main	STX	memory-chips	2	$856.13	$812.76	-5.07%	-7.12%	$691.66	$856.13	2026-08-03	ask →
main	RTX	drone-tech	23	$215.22	$223.03	+3.63%	+1.57%	$204.15	$223.25	2026-08-03	ask →
whisper	DNN	uranium	774	$2.820	$3.220	+14.18%	+9.98%	$2.459	$3.220	2026-07-20	ask →
whisper	GE	fusion-energy	13	$348.83	$370.08	+6.09%	+1.89%	$327.88	$381.22	2026-07-20	ask →
whisper	STX	memory-chips	5	$856.13	$812.76	-5.07%	-7.12%	$691.66	$856.13	2026-08-03	ask →
total	6 open			$20,897.80	$21,818.89	+4.41% +$921.09	+1.33%

Closed positions

portfolio	symbol	theme	entry → exit	days	entry	exit	pnl	$ P&L	reason	ask
main	HON	humanoid-robots	2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30	3	$243.15	$241.91	-0.51%	-$24.80	thesis_decay	ask →
main	MU	memory-chips	2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29	2	$920.95	$739.00	-19.76%	-$363.90	initial_stop	ask →
main	SIMO	memory-chips	2026-07-20 → 2026-07-29	9	$264.33	$209.68	-20.67%	-$382.55	initial_stop	ask →
main	TSLA	humanoid-robots	2026-07-20 → 2026-07-23	3	$380.84	$319.69	-16.06%	-$733.80	initial_stop	ask →
main	RKLB	humanoid-robots	2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01	45	$124.77	$100.07	-19.80%	-$716.30	initial_stop	ask →
main	POET	photonics	2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01	45	$15.97	$9.700	-39.26%	-$739.86	initial_stop	ask →
whisper	HON	humanoid-robots	2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30	3	$243.15	$241.91	-0.51%	-$24.80	thesis_decay	ask →
whisper	MU	memory-chips	2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29	2	$920.95	$739.00	-19.76%	-$363.90	initial_stop	ask →
whisper	TSLA	humanoid-robots	2026-07-20 → 2026-07-23	3	$380.84	$319.69	-16.06%	-$489.20	initial_stop	ask →
whisper	SIMO	memory-chips	2026-05-17 → 2026-07-17	61	$259.99	$264.32	+1.67%	+$60.69	chandelier	ask →
whisper	INTC	ai-infra	2026-05-17 → 2026-07-15	59	$108.77	$101.94	-6.28%	-$198.21	chandelier	ask →
whisper	URG	uranium	2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01	45	$1.660	$1.350	-18.67%	-$571.02	initial_stop	ask →
crowded	SIMO	memory-chips	2026-07-20 → 2026-07-29	9	$264.33	$209.68	-20.67%	-$983.70	initial_stop	ask →
total	13 closed		win rate 8% (1W/12L)		$42,989.55	$37,458.20	-12.87%	-$5,531.36

Decision trail

survivorship guard from STRATEGY §9.5

Trades (open / exit)Considered (+ passes)All (+ marks · debug)

exit

07-29 22:00mainSIMOmemory-chipspos·7

SIMO closed on initial_stop predicate (day 9). Mark close $209.68, entry $264.33, pnl -20.67% ($-382.55). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperUECuranium

UEC ranked #6 in uranium (score=28.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperCCJuranium

CCJ ranked #5 in uranium (score=32.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperEUuranium

EU ranked #4 in uranium (score=37.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperURGuranium

URG ranked #3 in uranium (score=59.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperNXEuranium

NXE ranked #2 in uranium (score=73.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperABBhumanoid-robots

ABB ranked #5 in humanoid-robots (score=n/a, coverage=0/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperRKLBhumanoid-robots

RKLB ranked #4 in humanoid-robots (score=25.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperSYMhumanoid-robots

SYM ranked #3 in humanoid-robots (score=40.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperTSLAhumanoid-robots

TSLA ranked #2 in humanoid-robots (score=55.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperLRCXmemory-chips

LRCX ranked #7 in memory-chips (score=32.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperKLACmemory-chips

KLAC ranked #6 in memory-chips (score=33.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperWDCmemory-chips

WDC ranked #5 in memory-chips (score=34.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperSIMOmemory-chips

SIMO ranked #4 in memory-chips (score=66.2, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperAMATmemory-chips

AMAT ranked #3 in memory-chips (score=67.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperSTXmemory-chips

STX ranked #2 in memory-chips (score=68.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

pass

07-27 13:00whisperDNNuraniumpos·11

DNN would have opened but a prior open position exists (idempotency). Decision logged as pass.

open

07-27 13:00whisperHONhumanoid-robotspos·17

HON ranked #1 in humanoid-robots (score=85.0, coverage=6/6, close=$243.15, atr%=3.34%). Sized at weight=0.5000 ($5000.00), qty=20, initial stop $226.92 (2×ATR). The data shows momentum + trend support; opening as the conviction pick for this theme.

open

07-27 13:00whisperMUmemory-chipspos·16

MU ranked #1 in memory-chips (score=87.0, coverage=6/6, close=$920.95, atr%=8.82%). Sized at weight=0.1968 ($1967.91), qty=2, initial stop $758.50 (2×ATR). The data shows momentum + trend support; opening as the conviction pick for this theme.

pass

07-27 13:00mainUECuranium

UEC ranked #6 in uranium (score=28.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.

Showing 41–60 of 184 · filter considered

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