Paper trader
themetrader · validation harnessThree segregated portfolios run the agent's weekly opener. Every decision is logged — opens, exits, and the ones we passed on — and alpha is measured against SPY, not absolute return. The track record here is the source of truth for whether the architecture actually finds themes early.
Open positions
| portfolio | symbol | theme | qty | entry | mark | pnl | α · SPY | stop | chand high | entered | ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| main | TSLA | humanoid-robots | 11 | $362.86 | $375.00 | +3.35% | +1.98% | $335.19 | $380.68 | 2026-08-24 | ask → |
| main | PFE | glp1 | 180 | $27.72 | $27.82 | +0.36% | -1.35% | $26.59 | $28.72 | 2026-09-14 | ask → |
| main | META | ai-infra | 7 | $665.75 | $720.89 | +8.28% | +8.23% | $623.25 | $777.59 | 2026-09-21 | ask → |
| main | SIMO | memory-chips | 9 | $272.11 | $261.89 | -3.76% | -3.81% | $233.50 | $285.78 | 2026-09-21 | ask → |
| main | MU | memory-chips | 3 | $1082 | $1036 | -4.29% | -5.38% | $986.54 | $1097 | 2026-09-28 | ask → |
| main | LITE | photonics | 2 | $1085 | $1049 | -3.39% | -3.28% | $953.27 | $1133 | 2026-10-05 | ask → |
| main | NXE | uranium | 396 | $9.000 | $8.670 | -3.67% | -3.55% | $8.248 | $9.430 | 2026-10-05 | ask → |
| whisper | PFE | glp1 | 180 | $27.72 | $27.82 | +0.36% | -1.35% | $26.59 | $28.72 | 2026-09-14 | ask → |
| whisper | ARRNF | rare-earths | 7675 | $0.248 | $0.238 | -4.23% | -4.71% | $0.205 | $0.270 | 2026-09-21 | ask → |
| whisper | NXE | uranium | 359 | $9.000 | $8.670 | -3.67% | -3.55% | $8.248 | $9.430 | 2026-10-05 | ask → |
| whisper | MU | memory-chips | 2 | $1075 | $1036 | -3.63% | -3.52% | $982.39 | $1088 | 2026-10-05 | ask → |
| crowded | TSLA | humanoid-robots | 13 | $362.86 | $375.00 | +3.35% | +1.98% | $335.19 | $380.68 | 2026-08-24 | ask → |
| crowded | META | ai-infra | 7 | $665.75 | $720.89 | +8.28% | +8.23% | $623.25 | $777.59 | 2026-09-21 | ask → |
| crowded | SIMO | memory-chips | 9 | $272.11 | $261.89 | -3.76% | -3.81% | $233.50 | $285.78 | 2026-09-21 | ask → |
| crowded | LITE | photonics | 4 | $1085 | $1049 | -3.39% | -3.28% | $953.27 | $1133 | 2026-10-05 | ask → |
| crowded | MSFT | ai-infra | 9 | $517.53 | $522.61 | +0.98% | +1.10% | $494.41 | $529.76 | 2026-10-05 | ask → |
| total | 16 open | $58,175.47 | $58,368.47 | +0.33% +$193.00 | -0.22% |
Closed positions
| portfolio | symbol | theme | entry → exit | days | entry | exit | pnl | $ P&L | reason | ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| main | GEV | modular-nuclear | 2026-09-28 → 2026-10-06 | 8 | $957.63 | $1029 | +7.47% | +$286.32 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | LITE | photonics | 2026-09-28 → 2026-10-01 | 3 | $941.65 | $1046 | +11.06% | +$208.26 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | LITE | photonics | 2026-09-21 → 2026-09-21 | 0 | $930.91 | $954.49 | +2.53% | +$47.16 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | LEU | modular-nuclear | 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-14 | 14 | $175.78 | $146.25 | -16.80% | -$354.36 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | LITE | photonics | 2026-08-17 → 2026-09-14 | 28 | $926.14 | $835.03 | -9.84% | -$182.22 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | NXE | uranium | 2026-08-10 → 2026-09-14 | 35 | $10.43 | $9.470 | -9.20% | -$288.00 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | DNN | uranium | 2026-07-20 → 2026-09-11 | 53 | $2.820 | $3.020 | +7.09% | +$229.60 | chandelier | ask → |
| main | AMGN | glp1 | 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-08 | 8 | $432.42 | $393.17 | -9.08% | -$431.75 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | AXON | drone-tech | 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-01 | 8 | $627.75 | $518.30 | -17.44% | -$437.80 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | RTX | drone-tech | 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-31 | 28 | $215.22 | $207.73 | -3.48% | -$172.27 | chandelier | ask → |
| main | LEU | modular-nuclear | 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-25 | 15 | $191.37 | $193.39 | +1.06% | +$22.22 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | LMT | drone-tech | 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-20 | 3 | $608.68 | $571.48 | -6.11% | -$297.60 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | MU | memory-chips | 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 | 1 | $971.66 | $940.76 | -3.18% | -$61.80 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | STX | memory-chips | 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-18 | 15 | $856.13 | $903.68 | +5.55% | +$95.10 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | HON | humanoid-robots | 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 | 1 | $246.21 | $230.12 | -6.54% | -$305.71 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | HON | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30 | 3 | $243.15 | $241.91 | -0.51% | -$24.80 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | MU | memory-chips | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29 | 2 | $920.95 | $739.00 | -19.76% | -$363.90 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-29 | 9 | $264.33 | $209.68 | -20.67% | -$382.55 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | TSLA | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-23 | 3 | $380.84 | $319.69 | -16.06% | -$733.80 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | RKLB | humanoid-robots | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $124.77 | $100.07 | -19.80% | -$716.30 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | POET | photonics | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $15.97 | $9.700 | -39.26% | -$739.86 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | GEV | modular-nuclear | 2026-09-28 → 2026-10-06 | 8 | $957.63 | $1029 | +7.47% | +$357.90 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| whisper | RGEN | glp1 | 2026-09-21 → 2026-10-06 | 15 | $176.89 | $174.86 | -1.15% | -$50.75 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | LITE | photonics | 2026-09-28 → 2026-10-01 | 3 | $941.65 | $1046 | +11.06% | +$520.65 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| whisper | NXE | uranium | 2026-09-14 → 2026-10-01 | 17 | $9.850 | $8.870 | -9.95% | -$235.20 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | GEV | modular-nuclear | 2026-09-14 → 2026-09-14 | 0 | $957.27 | $874.76 | -8.62% | -$165.02 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | LEU | modular-nuclear | 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-14 | 14 | $175.78 | $146.25 | -16.80% | -$354.36 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | DNN | uranium | 2026-07-20 → 2026-09-11 | 53 | $2.820 | $3.020 | +7.09% | +$154.80 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | AMGN | glp1 | 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-08 | 8 | $432.42 | $393.17 | -9.08% | -$431.75 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | LEU | modular-nuclear | 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-25 | 8 | $190.15 | $193.39 | +1.70% | +$84.24 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| whisper | GE | fusion-energy | 2026-07-20 → 2026-08-20 | 31 | $348.83 | $344.64 | -1.20% | -$54.47 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | COHR | photonics | 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-18 | 8 | $379.13 | $306.43 | -19.18% | -$945.10 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | STX | memory-chips | 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-18 | 15 | $856.13 | $903.68 | +5.55% | +$237.75 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| whisper | HON | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30 | 3 | $243.15 | $241.91 | -0.51% | -$24.80 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| whisper | MU | memory-chips | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29 | 2 | $920.95 | $739.00 | -19.76% | -$363.90 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | TSLA | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-23 | 3 | $380.84 | $319.69 | -16.06% | -$489.20 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-17 | 61 | $259.99 | $264.32 | +1.67% | +$60.69 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | INTC | ai-infra | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-15 | 59 | $108.77 | $101.94 | -6.28% | -$198.21 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | URG | uranium | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $1.660 | $1.350 | -18.67% | -$571.02 | initial_stop | ask → |
| crowded | LITE | photonics | 2026-09-21 → 2026-09-21 | 0 | $930.91 | $954.49 | +2.53% | +$47.16 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| crowded | LITE | photonics | 2026-08-17 → 2026-09-14 | 28 | $926.14 | $835.03 | -9.84% | -$182.22 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| crowded | NXE | uranium | 2026-08-10 → 2026-09-14 | 35 | $10.43 | $9.470 | -9.20% | -$288.00 | initial_stop | ask → |
| crowded | DNN | uranium | 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-01 | 8 | $3.500 | $3.200 | -8.57% | -$428.40 | chandelier | ask → |
| crowded | LEU | modular-nuclear | 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-25 | 15 | $191.37 | $193.39 | +1.06% | +$22.22 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| crowded | LMT | drone-tech | 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-20 | 3 | $608.68 | $571.48 | -6.11% | -$297.60 | initial_stop | ask → |
| crowded | MU | memory-chips | 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-18 | 1 | $971.66 | $940.76 | -3.18% | -$61.80 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| crowded | HON | humanoid-robots | 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-11 | 1 | $246.21 | $230.12 | -6.54% | -$305.71 | initial_stop | ask → |
| crowded | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-29 | 9 | $264.33 | $209.68 | -20.67% | -$983.70 | initial_stop | ask → |
| total | 48 closed | win rate 29% (14W/34L) | $159,789.75 | $150,239.88 | -5.98% | -$9,549.86 |
Decision trail
survivorship guard from STRATEGY §9.5pass
09-21 13:00mainPOETphotonics
POET ranked #3 in photonics (score=40.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
09-21 13:00mainCOHRphotonics
COHR ranked #2 in photonics (score=65.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
open
09-21 13:00mainSIMOmemory-chipspos·49
SIMO ranked #1 in memory-chips (score=92.5, coverage=4/6, close=$272.11, atr%=7.10%). Sized at weight=0.2520 ($2520.36), qty=9, initial stop $233.50 (2×ATR). The data shows momentum + trend support; opening as the conviction pick for this theme.
open
09-21 13:00mainMETAai-infrapos·48
META ranked #1 in ai-infra (score=84.0, coverage=6/6, close=$665.75, atr%=3.19%). Sized at weight=0.5000 ($5000.00), qty=7, initial stop $623.25 (2×ATR). The data shows momentum + trend support; opening as the conviction pick for this theme.
open
09-21 13:00mainLITEphotonicspos·47
LITE ranked #1 in photonics (score=85.0, coverage=6/6, close=$930.91, atr%=7.21%). Sized at weight=0.2480 ($2479.64), qty=2, initial stop $796.64 (2×ATR). The data shows momentum + trend support; opening as the conviction pick for this theme.
exit
09-14 22:00crowdedLITEphotonicspos·34
LITE closed on thesis_decay predicate (day 28). Mark close $835.03, entry $926.14, pnl -9.84% ($-182.22). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
09-14 22:00crowdedNXEuraniumpos·26
NXE closed on initial_stop predicate (day 35). Mark close $9.47, entry $10.43, pnl -9.20% ($-288.00). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
09-14 22:00whisperGEVmodular-nuclearpos·46
GEV closed on initial_stop predicate (day 0). Mark close $874.76, entry $957.27, pnl -8.62% ($-165.02). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
09-14 22:00whisperLEUmodular-nuclearpos·41
LEU closed on initial_stop predicate (day 14). Mark close $146.25, entry $175.78, pnl -16.80% ($-354.36). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
09-14 22:00mainLEUmodular-nuclearpos·39
LEU closed on initial_stop predicate (day 14). Mark close $146.25, entry $175.78, pnl -16.80% ($-354.36). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
09-14 22:00mainLITEphotonicspos·30
LITE closed on thesis_decay predicate (day 28). Mark close $835.03, entry $926.14, pnl -9.84% ($-182.22). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
09-14 22:00mainNXEuraniumpos·22
NXE closed on initial_stop predicate (day 35). Mark close $9.47, entry $10.43, pnl -9.20% ($-288.00). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
pass
09-14 13:00crowdedACIAphotonics
ACIA ranked #6 in photonics (score=n/a, coverage=0/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
09-14 13:00crowdedIIVIphotonics
IIVI ranked #5 in photonics (score=n/a, coverage=0/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
09-14 13:00crowdedLASRphotonics
LASR ranked #4 in photonics (score=17.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
09-14 13:00crowdedPOETphotonics
POET ranked #3 in photonics (score=40.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
09-14 13:00crowdedCOHRphotonics
COHR ranked #2 in photonics (score=60.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
09-14 13:00crowdedLITEphotonicspos·34
LITE would have opened but a prior open position exists (idempotency). Decision logged as pass.
pass
09-14 13:00whisperBWXTmodular-nuclear
BWXT ranked #6 in modular-nuclear (score=28.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
09-14 13:00whisperOKLOmodular-nuclear
OKLO ranked #5 in modular-nuclear (score=32.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.