Paper trader
themetrader · validation harnessThree segregated portfolios run the agent's weekly opener. Every decision is logged — opens, exits, and the ones we passed on — and alpha is measured against SPY, not absolute return. The track record here is the source of truth for whether the architecture actually finds themes early.
Open positions
| portfolio | symbol | theme | qty | entry | mark | pnl | α · SPY | stop | chand high | entered | ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| main | DNN | uranium | 1148 | $2.820 | $3.220 | +14.18% | +9.98% | $2.459 | $3.220 | 2026-07-20 | ask → |
| main | STX | memory-chips | 2 | $856.13 | $812.76 | -5.07% | -7.12% | $691.66 | $856.13 | 2026-08-03 | ask → |
| main | RTX | drone-tech | 23 | $215.22 | $223.03 | +3.63% | +1.57% | $204.15 | $223.25 | 2026-08-03 | ask → |
| whisper | DNN | uranium | 774 | $2.820 | $3.220 | +14.18% | +9.98% | $2.459 | $3.220 | 2026-07-20 | ask → |
| whisper | GE | fusion-energy | 13 | $348.83 | $370.08 | +6.09% | +1.89% | $327.88 | $381.22 | 2026-07-20 | ask → |
| whisper | STX | memory-chips | 5 | $856.13 | $812.76 | -5.07% | -7.12% | $691.66 | $856.13 | 2026-08-03 | ask → |
| total | 6 open | $20,897.80 | $21,818.89 | +4.41% +$921.09 | +1.33% |
Closed positions
| portfolio | symbol | theme | entry → exit | days | entry | exit | pnl | $ P&L | reason | ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| main | HON | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30 | 3 | $243.15 | $241.91 | -0.51% | -$24.80 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | MU | memory-chips | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29 | 2 | $920.95 | $739.00 | -19.76% | -$363.90 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-29 | 9 | $264.33 | $209.68 | -20.67% | -$382.55 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | TSLA | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-23 | 3 | $380.84 | $319.69 | -16.06% | -$733.80 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | RKLB | humanoid-robots | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $124.77 | $100.07 | -19.80% | -$716.30 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | POET | photonics | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $15.97 | $9.700 | -39.26% | -$739.86 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | HON | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30 | 3 | $243.15 | $241.91 | -0.51% | -$24.80 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| whisper | MU | memory-chips | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29 | 2 | $920.95 | $739.00 | -19.76% | -$363.90 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | TSLA | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-23 | 3 | $380.84 | $319.69 | -16.06% | -$489.20 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-17 | 61 | $259.99 | $264.32 | +1.67% | +$60.69 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | INTC | ai-infra | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-15 | 59 | $108.77 | $101.94 | -6.28% | -$198.21 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | URG | uranium | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $1.660 | $1.350 | -18.67% | -$571.02 | initial_stop | ask → |
| crowded | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-29 | 9 | $264.33 | $209.68 | -20.67% | -$983.70 | initial_stop | ask → |
| total | 13 closed | win rate 8% (1W/12L) | $42,989.55 | $37,458.20 | -12.87% | -$5,531.36 |
Decision trail
survivorship guard from STRATEGY §9.5pass
08-03 13:00mainLMTdrone-tech
LMT ranked #2 in drone-tech (score=88.8, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainKLACmemory-chips
KLAC ranked #7 in memory-chips (score=16.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainLRCXmemory-chips
LRCX ranked #6 in memory-chips (score=37.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainAMATmemory-chips
AMAT ranked #5 in memory-chips (score=52.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainWDCmemory-chips
WDC ranked #4 in memory-chips (score=64.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainSIMOmemory-chips
SIMO ranked #3 in memory-chips (score=66.2, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainMUmemory-chips
MU ranked #2 in memory-chips (score=74.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainEUuranium
EU ranked #6 in uranium (score=28.0, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainUECuranium
UEC ranked #5 in uranium (score=41.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainURGuranium
URG ranked #4 in uranium (score=41.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainCCJuranium
CCJ ranked #3 in uranium (score=41.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
08-03 13:00mainNXEuranium
NXE ranked #2 in uranium (score=86.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
open
08-03 13:00mainRTXdrone-techpos·19
RTX ranked #1 in drone-tech (score=94.4, coverage=4/6, close=$215.22, atr%=2.57%). Sized at weight=0.5000 ($5000.00), qty=23, initial stop $204.15 (2×ATR). The data shows momentum + trend support; opening as the conviction pick for this theme.
open
08-03 13:00mainSTXmemory-chipspos·18
STX ranked #1 in memory-chips (score=78.0, coverage=6/6, close=$856.13, atr%=9.61%). Sized at weight=0.2003 ($2002.56), qty=2, initial stop $691.66 (2×ATR). The data shows momentum + trend support; opening as the conviction pick for this theme.
pass
08-03 13:00mainDNNuraniumpos·9
DNN would have opened but a prior open position exists (idempotency). Decision logged as pass.
exit
07-30 22:00whisperHONhumanoid-robotspos·17
HON closed on thesis_decay predicate (day 3). Mark close $241.91, entry $243.15, pnl -0.51% ($-24.80). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
07-30 22:00mainHONhumanoid-robotspos·15
HON closed on thesis_decay predicate (day 3). Mark close $241.91, entry $243.15, pnl -0.51% ($-24.80). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
07-29 22:00crowdedSIMOmemory-chipspos·13
SIMO closed on initial_stop predicate (day 9). Mark close $209.68, entry $264.33, pnl -20.67% ($-983.70). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
07-29 22:00whisperMUmemory-chipspos·16
MU closed on initial_stop predicate (day 2). Mark close $739.00, entry $920.95, pnl -19.76% ($-363.90). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.
exit
07-29 22:00mainMUmemory-chipspos·14
MU closed on initial_stop predicate (day 2). Mark close $739.00, entry $920.95, pnl -19.76% ($-363.90). The data shows the exit predicate fired; closing the position.