Paper trader
themetrader · validation harnessThree segregated portfolios run the agent's weekly opener. Every decision is logged — opens, exits, and the ones we passed on — and alpha is measured against SPY, not absolute return. The track record here is the source of truth for whether the architecture actually finds themes early.
Open positions
| portfolio | symbol | theme | qty | entry | mark | pnl | α · SPY | stop | chand high | entered | ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| main | DNN | uranium | 1148 | $2.820 | $3.220 | +14.18% | +9.98% | $2.459 | $3.220 | 2026-07-20 | ask → |
| main | STX | memory-chips | 2 | $856.13 | $812.76 | -5.07% | -7.12% | $691.66 | $856.13 | 2026-08-03 | ask → |
| main | RTX | drone-tech | 23 | $215.22 | $223.03 | +3.63% | +1.57% | $204.15 | $223.25 | 2026-08-03 | ask → |
| whisper | DNN | uranium | 774 | $2.820 | $3.220 | +14.18% | +9.98% | $2.459 | $3.220 | 2026-07-20 | ask → |
| whisper | GE | fusion-energy | 13 | $348.83 | $370.08 | +6.09% | +1.89% | $327.88 | $381.22 | 2026-07-20 | ask → |
| whisper | STX | memory-chips | 5 | $856.13 | $812.76 | -5.07% | -7.12% | $691.66 | $856.13 | 2026-08-03 | ask → |
| total | 6 open | $20,897.80 | $21,818.89 | +4.41% +$921.09 | +1.33% |
Closed positions
| portfolio | symbol | theme | entry → exit | days | entry | exit | pnl | $ P&L | reason | ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| main | HON | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30 | 3 | $243.15 | $241.91 | -0.51% | -$24.80 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| main | MU | memory-chips | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29 | 2 | $920.95 | $739.00 | -19.76% | -$363.90 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-29 | 9 | $264.33 | $209.68 | -20.67% | -$382.55 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | TSLA | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-23 | 3 | $380.84 | $319.69 | -16.06% | -$733.80 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | RKLB | humanoid-robots | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $124.77 | $100.07 | -19.80% | -$716.30 | initial_stop | ask → |
| main | POET | photonics | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $15.97 | $9.700 | -39.26% | -$739.86 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | HON | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-30 | 3 | $243.15 | $241.91 | -0.51% | -$24.80 | thesis_decay | ask → |
| whisper | MU | memory-chips | 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29 | 2 | $920.95 | $739.00 | -19.76% | -$363.90 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | TSLA | humanoid-robots | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-23 | 3 | $380.84 | $319.69 | -16.06% | -$489.20 | initial_stop | ask → |
| whisper | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-17 | 61 | $259.99 | $264.32 | +1.67% | +$60.69 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | INTC | ai-infra | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-15 | 59 | $108.77 | $101.94 | -6.28% | -$198.21 | chandelier | ask → |
| whisper | URG | uranium | 2026-05-17 → 2026-07-01 | 45 | $1.660 | $1.350 | -18.67% | -$571.02 | initial_stop | ask → |
| crowded | SIMO | memory-chips | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-29 | 9 | $264.33 | $209.68 | -20.67% | -$983.70 | initial_stop | ask → |
| total | 13 closed | win rate 8% (1W/12L) | $42,989.55 | $37,458.20 | -12.87% | -$5,531.36 |
Decision trail
survivorship guard from STRATEGY §9.5pass
05-17 14:12mainLRCXmemory-chips
LRCX ranked #6 in memory-chips (score=37.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainAMATmemory-chips
AMAT ranked #5 in memory-chips (score=49.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainWDCmemory-chips
WDC ranked #4 in memory-chips (score=49.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainMUmemory-chips
MU ranked #3 in memory-chips (score=69.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainSTXmemory-chips
STX ranked #2 in memory-chips (score=73.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainRKLBhumanoid-robotspos·3
RKLB would have opened but a prior open position exists (idempotency). Decision logged as pass.
pass
05-17 14:12mainPOETphotonicspos·2
POET would have opened but a prior open position exists (idempotency). Decision logged as pass.
pass
05-17 14:12mainABBhumanoid-robots
ABB ranked #5 in humanoid-robots (score=n/a, coverage=0/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainSYMhumanoid-robots
SYM ranked #4 in humanoid-robots (score=17.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainHONhumanoid-robots
HON ranked #3 in humanoid-robots (score=40.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainTSLAhumanoid-robots
TSLA ranked #2 in humanoid-robots (score=65.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainACIAphotonics
ACIA ranked #6 in photonics (score=n/a, coverage=0/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainIIVIphotonics
IIVI ranked #5 in photonics (score=n/a, coverage=0/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainLASRphotonics
LASR ranked #4 in photonics (score=17.5, coverage=4/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainLITEphotonics
LITE ranked #3 in photonics (score=50.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainCOHRphotonics
COHR ranked #2 in photonics (score=70.0, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainKLACmemory-chips
KLAC ranked #7 in memory-chips (score=23.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainLRCXmemory-chips
LRCX ranked #6 in memory-chips (score=37.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainAMATmemory-chips
AMAT ranked #5 in memory-chips (score=49.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.
pass
05-17 14:12mainWDCmemory-chips
WDC ranked #4 in memory-chips (score=49.5, coverage=6/6). Outside the top-1 cutoff for this theme — passed.